There have been rumors about a looming Internet “crash” for well over a decade now. Back in 1995, a few IT professionals claimed that the increasing popularity of the net would crash the entire system by 1996. Meanwhile, 12 years later the Internet has proven (mostly) “uncrashable,” though there are concerns surfacing yet again that the Internet is heading for a fall. And this time, even the FCC is taking them seriously.
The difference between 1996 and 2008 is that online streaming video has become hugely popular, and the demand for online video is increasing at an astronomical rate. Unlike normal web pages, or even streaming audio, online video requires a tremendous amount of bandwidth. The popularity of sites such as YouTube and other streaming video providers is beginning to put a strain on service providers according to recent surveys.
To deal with the increased demand for Internet bandwidth, many providers, especially cable companies, are changing the way they distribute Internet bandwidth and deliver data. But as online traffic continues to grow, there are many who speculate that these half measures will not be sufficient, and consumers could end up paying “per download” or in other bandwidth-limiting schemes.
Several companies are also considering blocking peer-to-peer networks such as BitTorrent and Kazaa, though the FCC will be investigating this practice later this year. Basically, by blocking peer-to-peer networks or other high-bandwidth activities online, the cable companies are violating “net neutrality.” Consumer groups have already filed complaints with the FCC against Comcast for this type of net neutrality violation.
But while the FCC has a general policy that prevents Internet service providers from blocking applications, the details of the rules regarding this point are unclear. FCC regulations do provide an exemption to allow Internet providers to limit access in cases of “reasonable traffic management.” Comcast is claiming that blocking peer-to-peer networks falls under this category, though the FCC has yet to make a ruling in this case.
With more and more individuals electing to watch television and movies online, the bandwidth required to meet demand is increasing about every few months. And with the broadcast networks and film studios quickly moving into the online world, we could see a 500% increase in the popularity of online streaming video over the next five years.
The big question is, what happens when we run out of bandwidth? Would it actually be possible to “crash” the Internet? Technically, the answer is no… probably.
Experts predict that there could be the equivalent of a massive “traffic jam” online, wherein wait times to access streaming media, e-mail and other services could be significant, but it is highly unlikely that there could be a worldwide crash of the system. Local crashes, such as that recently experienced in India and the Middle East, are possible and are far more likely according to experts.
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