The US telecommunications company AT&T is claiming that the Internet’s network structure will reach full capacity by 2010 unless there is a significant investment in expanding the current network architecture. AT&T is blaming increasing amounts of video and user generated content, noting that the current Internet network structure cannot continue to support the huge bandwidth demands of streaming high-definition video and other user content — unless steps are taken now to expand the Internet infrastructure massively.

Of course, we’ve all heard these “the sky is falling” type comments before regarding the Internet. Back in 2002, one respected IT analyst suggested that by 2006 the Internet would “crash” because of the exponential growth of streaming video online. So should we take AT&T’s warnings seriously, or is this just another scare tactic to get increased government funding to benefit the giant telecommunications companies?

Actually, there may be some truth to AT&T’s claims, though it appears they are also exaggerating the projected bandwidth requirements somewhat. For example, an AT&T spokesperson quoted on Zdnet.com claims that in only three years, 20 average households in the US will generate more online traffic than the entire Internet today.”

While it is certainly unquestionable that bandwidth requirements will continue to grow, the idea that 20 households will generate more online traffic than the entire Internet today is patently absurd. Let’s face it, 20 households could each contain 20 computers, uploading high-definition video’s 24 hours a day, and still not come close to the amount of bandwidth currently used in a city like Tokyo, much less the entire world!

So it appears that AT&T is exaggerating matters somewhat, but beneath their hyperbole is a legitimate complaint, and it is that Internet bandwidth demands are growing at an exponential rate, and steps will need to be taken to ensure that the underlying architecture of the world wide web can stand up to the increasing demands for bandwidth.

An AT&T spokesperson stated that a minimum $55 billion investment would be required to add and improve the existing net infrastructure in the United States alone over the next three years. AT&T predicts the worldwide upgrade would cost in the neighborhood of $130 billion.

Realistically, AT&T is overstating the issue, and most experts believe demand for bandwidth is likely to continue to grow at the current rate, so there are serious doubts as to whether their 2010 projection is correct. However, nearly all Internet analysists agree that there will come a point when the capacity of the Internet’s current architecture “peaks out” and no further development will be possible until the system is expanded. Right now, a more accepted projection for when this will occur seems to be between 2016 and 2018.

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